Confidently unrehearsed (day 13)

Always look on the bright side of life.  That's what they say.  Except that over-confidence will get you in the end.  Feedback is essential.  This article on Psy-Fi outlines the reasons why processes that have inherently long feedback loops are very hard to optimize and deserve a systematic approach to decision documentation and evaluation.   I love the article because it really strikes at the heart of human nature.  We are short-term beings, and for the most part cowards as well.   Most of us don't even like to hear or see ourselves on record.   There is something very frightening about seeing ourselves unrehearsed, and most of life is like that: unrehearsed and distracted.   This is why I like the premise of the article: even if it seems that emotional intuitive decisions are quicker, have the courage and take the time to analyze and document how a decision is made.  In the end, even if the decision ends up being the same, you'll have something to use as a basis for change if the decision didn't work out as expected.   The discipline and commitment that it takes to do something like that though is unusual.   The problem does not suggest its own antidote at all.

There is one thing in the article I don't quite agree with.   I don't agree that if we did see the world as the mess it truly is that we would be depressed (and make better decisions).   I think there is a nice middle ground between irrational exhuberance and irrational pessimism.  The world is a mess, absolutely.  But that's a reason to be realistic, look at the suffering directly, and try to help where possible.  Seen from that angle, exhuberance and pessimism are both forms of laziness.

The systematic way of making stock picks for effective feedback could be applied to life in general if we were clear on what we were optimizing.  With stock pics, we're optimizing a return on investment.  What about life?  I suspect there are lots of answers here.   My personal favourite is that the motivation should be related to reducing suffering and increasing joy.